Download Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter L. Bernstein PDF

By Peter L. Bernstein

A enterprise Week, big apple instances enterprise, and united states at the present time Bestseller"Ambitious and readable . . . an interesting advent to the oddsmakers, whom Bernstein regards as actual humanists assisting to liberate mankind from the choke holds of superstition and fatalism." -The ny Times"An terribly interesting and informative book." -The Wall road Journal"A vigorous panoramic booklet . . . opposed to the Gods units up an bold premise after which promises on it." -Business Week"Deserves to be, and definitely could be, largely read." -The Economist"[A] difficult booklet, person who may possibly swap without end the way in which humans take into consideration the world." -Worth"No one else may have written a ebook of such important significance with rather a lot allure and excitement." -Robert Heilbroner writer, The Worldly Philosophers"With his extraordinary wisdom of the heritage and present manifestations of threat, Peter Bernstein brings us opposed to the Gods. not anything love it will pop out of the monetary global this yr or ever. I converse rigorously: nobody should still pass over it." -John Kenneth Galbraith Professor of Economics Emeritus, Harvard UniversityIn this specific exploration of the function of probability in our society, Peter Bernstein argues that the idea of bringing hazard below keep an eye on is without doubt one of the relevant rules that distinguishes sleek instances from the far-off earlier. opposed to the Gods chronicles the striking highbrow event that liberated humanity from oracles and soothsayers by way of the strong instruments of threat administration which are on hand to us today."An tremendous readable historical past of risk." -Barron's"Fascinating . . . this hard quantity can assist the uncertainties that each investor needs to face." -Money"A singular achievement." -Times Literary Supplement"There's a becoming marketplace for savants who can render the recondite intelligibly-witness Stephen Jay Gould (natural history), Oliver Sacks (disease), Richard Dawkins (heredity), James Gleick (physics), Paul Krugman (economics)-and Bernstein could mingle good of their company." -The Australian

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In other words, a study of the absence of failures rather than a study of failures. Karl Weick, already mentioned in Chapter 1, introduced the idea of collective mindfulness as a basis for HRO. E. H. (1993), Collective mind in organizations: Heedful interrelating on flight decks, Administrative Science Quarterly, 38, 357–81. org/. Mindfulness is highly relevant to Safety–II, and is referred to several times in the following chapters. Chapter 3 The Current State Safety Thinking The American national Standards Institute defines safety simply as the freedom from unacceptable risk, where unacceptable risk is indirectly defined as a risk for which the probability is too high.

How Can We Know Whether Something Is Safe? From a historical perspective, humans have always had to worry a little about whether something was safe. It could be whether a bridge was safe to walk on, whether a building was safe or could collapse, whether a journey was safe, whether an activity (‘doing something’) was safe, etc. 1 33 Technology-based safety questions Safety concern (question) Meaning Design principles On what basis is the system (machine) designed? Are there explicit and known design principles?

In Chapter 2, this was described in terms of the three ages in safety thinking, where the transition from age to age corresponded to the adoption of a new category of causes (technological, human factors, organisational). What did not change, however, was the basic focus on adverse outcomes, accidents and incidents, and the conviction that safety could be improved by eliminating the causes of accidents and incidents. Habituation An unintended but unavoidable consequence of associating safety with things that go wrong is a lack of attention to things that go right.

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